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In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day
investing comments / day
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
Following the “permanent temporary” measures against binary options and CFDs (contract for difference), the body in charge implements its own set of limitations that simply forbids regulated houses to offer such product in the UK, hence increasing the risk of pushing retails traders towards illegal brokers and outright scams. Fortunately, a new solution is now available to UK traders via a new United Kingdom Financial regulatory ruling.submitted by sinenyoku to u/sinenyoku [link] [comments]
More scrutiny from UK banks about financial transactions, even to binary optionsIn short, banks will have to take more responsibility about the financial transactions they facilitate. This new ruling should lead to the creation of a new code of conduct that will help defrauded people to have their funds recovered by their bank, unless it is proven they acted recklessly.
As a popular Financial blog puts, it, “It is likely that should a bank or credit card company be either impersonated by a fraudster in order to gain money, or trick a client into depositing, and the bank allows the transfer, a client will be able to take recourse.
The broad protection should kick for many online scheme and scams, whether it is fake investment companies, fraudulent binary options brokers or those scammers who promise to help you recover your stolen funds…only to steal from you once again. On the other hands, it means the banks will be more likely to forbid transactions to legit businesses, such as reputable cryptocurrency exchanges or honest smart options platforms.
The regulating bodies and financial institutions are taking a number of measures to prevent financial fraud. Binary options trading, in particular, is being controlled with a greater degree of robustness to protect the unwary general public being drawn into a situation where they suffer financial losses. Many hundreds of people around the world are targeted each day.
![img](prwn4ha2ecf51 " ")
Frequently they are novice investors who are unfamiliar with the markets and do not recognize that the so-called trading platform and its way of working are actually bogus. The individual only realizes the extent of the fraud when eventually when the fraudsters finally decide that there is no more money to be had and shut down the account and promptly vanish without trace.
Spotting Fraudulent Binary Options Broker
Some lawyers in the financial fraud division are very familiar with the pattern of behaviour demonstrated by the fraudulent brokers and the distress caused by their dealings with inexperienced investors. There is a track of record of recovery in relation to financial fraud and has a number of strategies and tactics to compel the fraudulent broker or associated financial service providers to restore funds to those who have been deceived.
Needless to say, the fraudsters are accomplished at hiding their tracks and frequently there are myriad inter-connected limited liability companies, often some are registered in different countries, with some dormant and some active. It is hardly surprising if the complexity of the situation results in a failure to discover a single person who can be challenged and held accountable.
However, there are various channels financial fraud lawyers use when attempting to retrieve money for clients and each avenue is investigated. Whilst an individual may be alarmed and confused at the prospect of navigating through the complex structures that have been deliberately set up to confuse, Financial fraud lawyers are usually quite familiar with strategies fraudsters use, and frequently can steer a course to the recovery of some or all of the lost money.
The step of last resort, legal action, is understandably daunting for a person who often has lost significant amounts of money to the fraudulent brokers. It is fully understandable that such a situation will leave the victim decidedly risk-averse. There have been experiences with class actions against the fraudulent brokers and has developed links with litigation funding organizations in order to offset the risk in respect of class actions.
The lessons that can be drawn from the experiences of those individuals who have had the misfortune of losing their investments to fraudsters are to be extremely cautious. Always consider every offer or investment for at least 48 hours before making a decision, a genuine broker will understand the caution that a new investor will view a proposition.
All investments carry a risk and anything that promises a return on your initial investment seems to be significantly higher than normal it is almost certainly not to be trusted. Do not allow yourself to be hurried into a decision, it is highly unlikely that an authentic broker would try to rush you into an investment, especially if you demonstrated reluctance; their reputation would suffer by such behaviour.
You can now recover all money lost to bitcoin, binary options, cryptocurrency, investment, scam by hiring any one of these Verified Wealth Recovery Experts.
To recover money lost to binary options, forex, bitcoins, cryptocurrency, and investment, get all the information you need here; https://bitcoinbinaryoptionsreview.com/binary-options-uk-scammed-traders-fake-brokers-and-funds-recovery/
|Free trades per month||Products||Fees (deposit etc)||FCA Regulated?||Bank transfer or debit card?|
|Trading 212||Unlimited||Stocks ETF/ETCs Forex Crypto ISA||Free ISA, no trade fees, CFD account has charges inc: 0.5% currency conversion charge, no forex fees||Yes||Debit card: Yes - Bank transfer: Yes|
|TD Ameritrade||Unlimited||$0 for US stock $6.95 for non-US||Cannot find on FCA register||Cannot find on FCA register|
|eToro||Unlimited||Stocks ETF/ETCs Forex Crypto Commodities via CFD’s No ISA||- $5 withdrawal fee - Deposit and withdrawal fee of 0.5% - exchange fee (50 pips) 0.5cent/$1 e.g $7.5 on $500 - If no activity for 12 months charged $10 per month - 0.75% fee to buy bitcoin||Yes||Debit card: Yes - Bank transfer: No|
|Freetrade||Unlimited||Mobile app only Stocks ETFs ISA||ISA £3/month 0.90% forex fee||Yes||Debit card: No - Bank transfer: Yes|
|Revolut||3||Mobile app only Stocks Crypto Commodities No ISA||Complex fee structure||Yes||Debit card: Yes - Bank transfer: Yes|
|Degiro||Unlimited||Stocks ETF Funds Bonds Options Futures Crypto No ISA||High fees (complex structure)||Yes||Debit card: No - Bank transfer: Yes|
|Investment type||Fees (deposit etc)||FCA Regulated?||Pre-emption rights?|
|Crowd cube||Venture capital||1.5%||Yes||No|
|Syndicate Room||Venture capital||High fees 2% set up fee 1.5% – 2.3% annual 20% performance fee Life-time management fees of between 12.5% and 24.3%||Yes||Yes|
|Seedrs||Venture capital||7.5% of any profit Plus variable sale fees||Yes||Yes|
|Crowd property||Property||0% fees however returns capped at 8%.||Yes||N/A|
Established in the year 2014, the Binomo.com website is a leading online trading platform that lets the user trade raw materials as well as cryptocurrency. Speaking more about it, this trading platform has clients from 133 countries. Besides, it has emerged as a popular broker for online traders from Turkey, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Ukraine.submitted by hawertin to u/hawertin [link] [comments]
The platform is owned by Dolphin Corp, located in the St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Binomo trading platform witnesses around 30,000,000 traders every week and also enjoys more than 850,000 daily active online traders. The platform has been a category A member of the International Finance Commission since May 2018, this means it is reliable and guarantees its traders’ high-quality services, transparency, and protection while they generate profit.
Binomo offers various attractive features like the low trade requirements, wide-range of financial assets, analytical services, highly efficient client support staff, professional level tutorials helping both experienced and novice traders. Binomo platform also offers quotes from the leading world news agencies as they understand how important the quality of trading is to trace commercial success. This is because Binomo lays emphasis on providing impeccable and a wide spectrum of services. Additionally, this online trading platform dedicates a huge amount of attention to the professional preparation of beginner traders, while at the same time providing the highest-level needs of the most sophisticated users in the market.
Other than this, a demo account with USD 10 and different welcome bonuses are some of the significant benefits that you can enjoy with this Binomo platform.
To know more about what is Binomo and to understand whether Binomo reliable trading platform or not, please go through this comprehensive Binomo review. Learn more about why Binomo can be an excellent choice.
Binomo fake?Some traders might have heard about various Binomo fake news. But most of them are not true. If you visit the Binomo website, you will find that the broker is well-regulated. Binomo is regulated by the IFC- International Financial Commission and comes under the Category A. That means, Binomo reaffirms its commitment to maintaining the highest standards of commercial honor and best business practices. And if anything goes wrong, IFC will compensate the fund for the members. Apart from this, Binomo has successfully passed an audit by Verify My Trade (VMT) and received a certificate of quality of trades.
Verify My Trade is a specialized service that certifies the quality of trade execution. This organization works in collaboration with The Financial Commission, making it possible to transparently and reliably assess the quality of trade execution with the trading platforms.
Every year, the Binomo trading platform is audited by the Verify My Trade. It may be noted the last audit was carried out on 13th February 2020.
Is Binomo safe? Well, the above information says the platform is safe to use. You won’t face any issues or fraud while trading on the Binomo platform.
Registration and AuthorizationIf you already have an account with Binomo, then you can just use Binomo login details to start trading. For new users, they need to open an account. The process of signing up with the Binomo trading platform is quite easy.
RegistrationVisit https://binomo.com/ and simply click on the sign-in option. Now you need to fill up the online account and hit on create account. You can also use Google or Facebook accounts for registration.
Account activationAfter completion of the registration process, you will get an email on your registered email ID. Open that mail and click on the given link to verify and activate your account. Once done, you can now start trading by depositing money on the account. What more you get $ 1,000 in a demo account.
DemoBinomo comes with an simple to use and fully accessible demo account allowing novice traders to learn the trading skill and learn how to use Binomo platform to earn extra income. You can use this account just by using your email ID. The user will get USD 1000, and they can top up it at any time. All the functions available in the real account are available in the demo account too.
Use the demo account, improve your trading skill, and then switch to real account for some serious trading business.
Deposit, commission, and bonusesThe minimum deposit amount is USD 10. If you have a standard account, you can get a new status. To receive a GOLD status, a deposit of a total amount of USD 500 is required and for VIP status, the total deposit amount should be equal to USD 1000. Money can be deposited through:
The platform has limited assets, especially for the ones who want to trade in cryptocurrency. There are limited trade types, insights, signals, or social trading not available. Also, there is always a risk of losing part or all the invested capital with online trading platforms. Online trading seems deceptively easy combined with lower costs and higher speeds. This can lead traders to trade too frequently and sell the best picks when they are just getting started. So, it is advised that you first get acquainted with using the Binomo online trading platform, know about the risks associated and only then invest to achieve income.
WithdrawalThe withdrawal time is fast and easy. As the site has SSL, your data will remain encrypted. The entire withdrawal process takes around 2 to 7 days to get complete.
Binomo mobile AppTo make the trading a lot convenient and accessible, Binomo offers its users its own Binomo trading app. The app is available for both iOS and Android mobile platforms. The app has a push notification feature that keeps you updated with all the recent happenings, promotional offers, and more. You won’t get this feature on the web platform. The Binomo app is very easy to use and has all the required features. In fact, it is themed to match the desktop version. So, you can download the Binomo trading app now and start trading.
SupportBinomo platform offers several options to avail the customer support. Users can use a chat window for live chat, and you can send request in support an email at [email protected] to get a solution.
Binomo educationBinomo offers to educate its user about using the platform. There are two options:
Why you should try Binomo?If you are looking for a reliable and certified online trading platform, then Binomo can be a perfect option as the platform has all the features and offer 24x7 hours support to both beginners and veteran. From the platform’s side, there is no fee and commission, thus attracting more people to use the trading platform. The minimum deposit of USD 10 and the minimum trading amount of USD 1 is very attractive. Furthermore, they have an easy to use demo account where you can enhance your trading strategy. So, you should try Binomo and get new experience.
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