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Bitcoin Options Index (^OIX) price sentiment indicator hits all time high ($42.66 / BTC)

The recent purchase of ~36,000 call options has driven the OIX to an all-time high, a very bullish signal for the medium-term bitcoin price. This indicator is based on the average break-even value for bitcoin options purchased in the past week. Over 60,000BTC in market-based bets is currently at risk in the option contracts purchased in the past week, so it's an indicator based on over $2,000,000 in real money bets on the future price of bitcoin. You can read more about how the OIX is calculated here. Which also includes this nifty historical chart of OIX vs. BTC price.
submitted by Bugpowder to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

[Informational] [CC0] Rolling the Satoshi Dice

Satoshi Dice

The gambling service Satoshi Dice, created by fireduck and then quickly sold to Erik Voorhees in April of 2012, became one of the largest and most notorious gambling services in Bitcoin history. Satoshi Dice, also known as SatoshiDICE has no affiliation with the Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. At one point the service became so popular, it could be seen that the large majority of Bitcoin transactions published to the Bitcoin Blockchain were directed at the service.

Rise to Popularity

Although the service was not an original creation of Erik Voorhees, it was his takeover of the project in 2012 and subsequent marketing and development that shepherded it to popularity.
To provide proof as to fairness, Satoshi Dice used a system of nonce hashing to determine a winning bet. Each bet transaction was hashed, along with a secret number, and the random resulting hash bytes were used to determine payouts.
Satoshi Dice was created with a novel concept of betting to provide an experience of betting that promised fast, simple and fair gambling. A variety of vanity addresses were created with the simple premise of sending to the one marked with the appropriate odds. No other interface was required. Bets were honored more quickly than competing services by accepting bets without confirmations, which was accomplished by using the bet funds as inputs the winning payouts.
Chaining the funding of winnings to the placement of the bet meant that a double spend attempt that attempted to claw back a bet payment would then also invalidate the winnings payment. To avoid clawing back losing bet payments, risk analysis on the Blockchain was performed to minimize the cost of losing bet fraud: only bets judged likely to confirm would pay out without a confirmation.
The service's popularity attracted heavy criticism of its on-chain mechanics. The use of single Satoshi payments to message losses created large increases to the cost burden of full node operators. The mixing of gambling and settlement on the chain added additional non-pure currency uses for the chain, which is discouraged to make the chain functionality well bounded. The obvious association of the chain with gambling was seen to draw fire from regulators.

Regulatory Problems

In August of 2012 Erik Voorhees listed Satoshi Dice on MPEx as a dividend paying stock. By January of 2013 Satoshi Dice announced they had processed fifteen million dollars in bets and taken five hundred thousand dollars in commissions. The Stock soared to nine million dollars in market value.
In May of 2013, Satoshi Dice started to face legal pressure from the US, and blocked U.S. IP addresses from its web interface. Two months later in July of 2013 Erik Voorhees found a buyer of his share of the site and a new operator, settling for one hundred and twenty-six thousand bitcoins, or around twelve million dollars at the time of sale.
In 2014 the new operator of the service responded to longstanding calls to reform the service's abuse of the Blockchain by offering off-chain bets.
Erik Voorhees's legal troubles with the site did not end with his sale. U.S. investigators stayed on the case and in June of 2014 formally charged Erik Voorhees with an unlawful public share offering on MPEx. Voorhees was forced to buy back the shares and pay more than $50k to settle the case.
The new operator of the site was shielded from this scrutiny but in 2014 and 2015 interest slowly waned in the service. Eventually in 2015 Satoshi Dice again offered an investment opportunity to earn profit by providing the house with bankroll funds.


submitted by pb1x to writingforbitcoin [link] [comments]

BTC Settled Dollar Futures?

Does anything like this exist?
Very standard dollar FX futures, but traded and settled in Bitcoins.
i.e. You post BTC in a margin account to either buy or sell a contract at a market price. On delivery day, if you're long, you post the full notional of the contract in BTC. In return, you receive in BTC the value of the underlying dollars ($Contract Value / exchange rate on delivery day, denominated in BTC) . If you're short, you provide the value of the underlying dollars in BTC and receive the purchase price. You can obviously flatten before the delivery date; that's what margin's for.
The only reason I suggest making the settlement all in BTC is to avoid the regulatory overhead of transferring dollars -- it may be worth it to get together with BitPay/Coinbase and let them handle all that. In that case, it becomes even more like a standard FX future -- longs deliver BTC, shorts deliver dollars.
I know of operations like mpex and icbit, but they leave a lot to be desired for a lot of reasons.
Any thoughts?
edit: clarified underlying delivery
edit2: the point of this is to indirectly trade Bitcoin futures (which BTC denominated dollar contracts are the inversion of) without shuffling around enough dollars to get CFTC on our backs
submitted by hftthrowaway to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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The opposite is the case for the business category exchanges (e.g., Bitcoin-24, MPEx), where the value is abnormally high in comparison to the number of transactions. For comparison reason a similar statistic was conducted with the focus on the transacted value in BTC. Bitcoin values can rise and fall dramatically throughout each trading day, jumping in whole dollar amounts increasing your risk of loss than if you trade hard currencies. For example, the value of bitcoin as a whole dropped more than fifty percent over the thirty-six hours after China banned the cryptocurrency. China banned the cryptocurrency. The trading volume of a bitcoin exchange shows you the level of trust people have in the business practices. A larger client base and higher trade volume means more potential trade partners, ensuring more equitable trades for all that tend to stick closer to the average market value of bitcoin. Prices and value history. The price of a bitcoin reached USD1,139.9 on 4 January 2017 caused in part by the European sovereign-debt crisis, the improvement in the currency's legal standing plus rising media and Internet interest. On March 2, 2017 the price of 1 bitcoin surpassed the spot price of an ounce of gold for the first time ... He did this by selling 13 million unregistered shares on the now-defunct MPEX exchange. Speaking at a conference in May 2013, ... In 2017, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed in value, increasing ...

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