How realistic is hyperbitcoinization (a tipping point where people start a rush to exit fiat for bitcoin in a fiat devaluation event http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/). Let's look at some global monetary and gold statistics.
Some talk about bitcoin perhaps one day matching or passing gold market cap. https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/
at $4400 which Bitcoin has been above for some of this month, it already reached around 1% of gold market cap.
But what other global targets are there for comparison. Globally, all paper currency and coins are valued around $5 trillion - at $4400 Bitcoin was already 1.5% of that.
Paper currency plus bank balances and savings value around $90 trillion - so if Bitcoin got to $50k/BTC (10x recent bitcoin highs) bitcoin would be valued 1% of all money!
So where is the tipping point - where people sit up and take notice - I'm not sure, but 1.5% of all physical currency is already pretty interesting. What happens if/when Bitcoin gets to 10%? Which then gets within reach of 1% of money of physical and bank deposits/savings globally. At some point there has to be a tipping point where money leaving accelerates for fear of falling fiat and we see the adoption S-curve play-out http://www.uversity.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Communication-Technology-Adoption-Peter-Leyden.png
The ETFs and institutional money have barely started yet, and historically gold price was influenced by the introduction of ETFs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-gold-etfs-have-transformed-market-in-10-years-2013-03-29
So will hyperbitcoinization happen, who knows. But the possibility is maybe not so far-fetched. It seems that bitcoin price news itself drives financial and other media interest - though maybe for reasons not so exposed to Bitcoin's value position.
(Some data from http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/ and https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/)
What would a stable post S-curve adoption price look like economically or geopolitically?
Interesting questions. As we've seen in the eurozone it can be difficult for countries, like Greece, to have a single currency but divergent economic policy - with the Drachma in previous economic downturns, they had been able to exploit a weak exchange rate to rebound by exporting their way out of recession. On the other end we've seen Iceland currency drop 60% https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/?utm_term=.5461176249e9 and recover faster. An interesting alternative or future strategy proposed by Icelander Sveinn Valfells was that Iceland adopt Bitcoin as a currency - with it's cheap geothermal power it has unique advantages for Bitcoin mining. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245327990_Bitcoin_for_Microstates_-_How_Iceland_could_adopt_Bitcoin
Bitcoin for Microstates How Iceland could adopt Bitcoin Sveinn Valfells, PhD linkd.in/wtaHi5 July, 2013 Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5 ) Bitcoin for Microstates July, 2013 1 / 18 Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin for Microstates July, 2013 14 / 18 Iceland — A Microstate in Need of a New Currency Bitcoin Has P a rtly Qualiﬁed T o Replace ISK At the Bitcoin London conference in early July, Icelandic angel investor and virtual currency expert Sveinn Valfells proffered a radical suggestion: Iceland should adopt bitcoin as its national currency. He may be in the minority, but his view is rooted in generations of experience suggesting that the Icelandic government is ill-equipped to ... Sveinn Valfells. Follow. Apr 7, 2019 · 3 min read. Over the weekend a friend of mine sent me a link to a recent article in the Economist, “Flaws in Bitcoin make a lasting revival unlikely ... Monerium co-founder and CEO, Sveinn Valfells, said that this will be the first time that electronic money will be used over the blockchain technology. He explained further: He explained further: “For practical purposes, fiat will be the currency most people and institutions will want to use in the near- and medium-term.
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